How strong will El Niño become this year?
El Niño is breaking every record this year. On 21 September the sea in the central part of the Pacific Ocean was 3.11 degrees warmer than usual. This is the highest value since the start of satellite measurements. The previous record was set in November 2015, during another strong El Niño. As early as July and August the water below the surface in some places was as much as 8 degrees warmer than normal.
El Niño is a natural event that returns every few years. Then the winds over the equator weaken, so the warm water spreads towards South America. This changes rainfall, winds and temperatures across much of the world. Then some areas do not get enough rain, while others get heavy rain and floods. The name means boy in Spanish, and fishermen in Peru gave the event this name, because the warm water arrived around Christmas.
Scientists expect that El Niño will keep getting stronger until the end of the year. According to the forecasts, the sea could be about 4 degrees warmer in November or December. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that El Niño will almost certainly last until February 2027. The head of the organization, Celeste Saulo, said that countries must prepare exceptionally well. The Secretary-General of the UN, António Guterres, warned that El Niño is growing before our eyes.
The effects are already being felt on several continents. In Indonesia many forest fires are burning, because less rain is falling there than usual. In the Atlantic Ocean there are fewer hurricanes this autumn than usual, because El Niño weakens them.
El Niño also raises the temperature of the whole planet. That is why 2026 is likely to be the warmest or second warmest year on record. Yet the biggest effect is expected in 2027, which could be even warmer. Scientists point out that El Niño is arriving in a world that is getting warmer and warmer even without it. The climate is warming because of the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. So every new strong El Niño starts from higher temperatures than the previous one.