Why is the choice of the successor to Guterres a test for the United Nations itself?
The selection of the tenth Secretary-General of the United Nations, who is due to succeed António Guterres on 1 January 2027, is taking place at a moment when the organisation is facing one of its gravest crises to date. The deadlocks in the Security Council, a chronic shortage of money and reduced support from the US, the biggest funder of the organisation, have called its role into question. At the same time, many member states are hoping for two historic changes: the first woman at the head of the organisation and, after more than three decades, once again a Secretary-General from Latin America and the Caribbean.
Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly on the recommendation of the Security Council, which in practice means that the real decision is taken by the fifteen members of the Council. For a long time the selection was made behind closed doors, but since 2016 the candidates have presented their programmes publicly to all member states. However, the real selection still happens in the secret straw polls in the Council, of which official records are not kept.
On each ballot the members can encourage or discourage the candidate, or express no opinion, and for a recommendation at least nine encouragements and not a single veto are required. That is why the results need to be read carefully: even eight encouragements mean little if a veto by the US, China, Russia, France or the United Kingdom is hidden among the discouragements. In 2016, at a later stage, the permanent members voted with ballots of a distinct colour, so that it could be seen who would cast a veto. In the third poll, on 18 September, Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of UNCTAD and former Vice-President of Costa Rica, received nine encouragements, the most of all. Behind her, with eight encouragements, came Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, ambassador of Guyana to the UN, while Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, received more discouragements than encouragements. Daniel Forti of the International Crisis Group assessed that the race now has two clear front-runners, but that neither of them has enough support to be safe from a veto.
The sharpest fall was experienced by Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile and the UN's former High Commissioner for Human Rights. Her candidacy weakened after the new Chilean President José Antonio Kast withdrew the support of his country. After ever fewer encouragements, six in July, two in August and only one in September, she withdrew from the race on 19 September. This leaves seven candidates, four women and three men.
The argument for a first woman at the head of the UN can hardly be disputed: all nine previous Secretaries-General were men, and in a resolution the General Assembly encouraged the states to nominate women. Regional rotation, for its part, is not written down anywhere, but many believe that now it is the turn of Latin America and the Caribbean. From the region the post has been held so far only by the Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, from 1982 to 1991. The experience of 2016 shows how little this custom binds: at the time many expected a Secretary-General from Eastern Europe, but the choice fell on Guterres from Western Europe.
Whoever wins will inherit an organisation in a deep financial crisis. Guterres warned that the UN is threatened with imminent financial collapse because unpaid dues had reached 1.57 billion dollars by the end of 2025. In addition, the administration of US President Donald Trump significantly cut the funds for the organisation. The paradox lies in the fact that the future Secretary-General must win the support precisely of the great powers whose disputes most often block the Security Council. The next straw poll could take place after 28 September, when the high-level week of the General Assembly ends.